Will the next UN Secretary-General be a woman?

A woman leading the UN would be symbolically important at a time of systematic and widespread global setbacks for women's rights and gender equality.

Last week the annual Women, Peace and Security Week took place in New York, where representatives from the UN, UN member states, regional organizations and civil society organizations met to discuss and critically assess the status of women's participation and influence in international peace and security. One issue that took centre stage both in formal and informal discussions was the selection of a new UN Secretary-General, and particularly the demand for the next one to be a woman.

Just before the WPS week was kicked off, the United Arab Emirates put forward its Minister of State and former UN Ambassador, Lana Nusseibeh, as a candidate for the post. This happened after the UN Security Council for months has considered a list of formal candidates and held several straw polls. Still, the Council is still far from reaching an agreed recommendation to the General Assembly. The process appears deadlocked.

The term of António Guterres is drawing to a close, and the new Secretary-General is formally due to take office on 1 January 2027. Time is therefore running short, at least if the next Secretary-General is to have any opportunity to prepare for the role. The last time the UN found itself in a similar position was when Kofi Annan was chosen as a compromise candidate in mid-December 1996.

A deadlocked situation

How did the UN end up in this situation? Over the past six months, eight official candidates have campaigned actively, presented their candidacies to the UN General Assembly, participated in town hall meetings with civil society organizations and met members of the Security Council. Yet none of the candidates have managed to secure sufficient support among the Security Council's 15 members, particularly among the five permanent members with veto power: China, France, Russia, the UK and the USA.

In the latest colour-coded straw poll, in which colours distinguish between permanent and elected Security Council members, all seven remaining candidates received two or more opposing votes from veto powers. We do not know exactly which countries cast those vetoes, as voting remains secret.

When comparing the results of the seven straw polls conducted so far, it is difficult to identify any clear pattern. A political game is underway, with speculation that some Security Council members see strategic advantages in maintaining a deadlock in order to keep the process open as long as possible. This also creates opportunities for "dark horse" candidates to emerge at the last minute.

"Dark Horses"

Lana Nusseibeh's name has circulated for some time as a possible dark horse, but it is only now, this late in the process, that she has been formally nominated. This may suggest that she has received indications of support from a few influential veto-powers and is now being promoted as a compromise candidate.

She also appears exceptionally well prepared and well resourced. With more than ten years of experience as UN Ambassador, including two years serving on the Security Council (2022-2023), she is well known within UN circles and comes across as articulate, knowledgeable about the organization and committed to multilateral cooperation.

At the same time, her candidacy has faced opposition from various quarters, not least because of the UAE's human rights record and reports documenting UAE’s support for the "Rapid Support Forces" in Sudan's brutal conflict. During last week’s hearing before the UN General Assembly, she was asked a series of critical questions regarding the UAE's foreign policy. She responded that she no longer represented the UAE and that such questions should therefore be directed to the country's foreign service. Her candidacy has also met resistance because she represents the "wrong" region. Until recently, regional representation has been an important principle in these appointments, something reflected in the regional backgrounds of the other candidates.

The demand for a woman from Latin America

Among the eight candidates officially nominated - before Nusseibeh - there is a strong presence of women from Latin America. These include former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, who withdrew earlier this autumn, Ivonne Baki and María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés, both from Ecuador, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana and Rebecca Grynspan of Costa Rica.

The large number of female candidates from Latin America can be explained by the following: First, there is growing recognition that the time is long overdue for the UN to appoint a woman as Secretary-General. The organization has had nine Secretary-Generals, all of them men. Until Guterres took office, the UN's senior leadership and other high-profile positions were also overwhelmingly dominated by men. Guterres assumed office fully aware of the widespread dissatisfaction with yet another man being selected. He therefore moved quickly to appoint women to a number of senior positions and became the first Secretary-General to reach gender parity in his leadership team. These steps have contributed to the high expectations among member states and civil society organizations that the next Secretary-General should be a woman.

Women's participation in decision-making

Appointing a woman to lead the UN would not only be symbolically important at a time of systematic and widespread global setbacks for women's rights and gender equality. There is also an expectation that a female Secretary-General would bring experiences and perspectives that influence which issues receive political attention.

It is expected that this will be particularly important in terms of implementing the commitments set out in the UN's many conventions and resolutions concerning women's participation and influence in matters of international peace and security.

Interestingly, however, none of the female candidates who have been in the race for some time has placed much emphasis on these issues in their respective campaigns. On the contrary, they have generally adopted cautious and carefully worded positions.

In today's political climate, speaking too much about women's rights and gender equality is evidently regarded as something that may reduce a candidate's prospects, as Michelle Bachelet experienced. The newer candidate, Lana Nusseibeh, by contrast, has not hidden the fact that this is an important issue area for both her and her candidacy. It is also an area in which she distinguished herself during her time as UN Ambassador.

Regional representation

Second, the large number of candidates from Latin America reflects an expectation that it is now this region's turn to "hold" the Secretary-Generalship. There has long been an informal understanding that senior positions within the UN system should rotate among the world's regions. According to this convention it is now Latin America's turn. For some members of the UN Security Council, such as China and Russia, as well as for the vast majority of UN member states from the Global South, maintaining the practice of regional rotation has been important. It helps ensure representation and a minimum degree of fairness in the distribution of positions within the UN system. Nevertheless, it now appears that both the demand for a woman Secretary-General and the expectation that she should come from Latin America may be losing support among Security Council members. This is particularly true given that the Latin American members of the Council have not even been able to agree on a common regional candidate. That said, on the same day that Nusseibeh appeared before the General Assembly, representatives of the group of Latin American and Caribbean UN member states held a press conference with a clear message: it is Latin America's turn to get the Secretary-General position.

Will it be a woman?

In practice, the selection of the Secretary-General is determined by the five permanent members of the Security Council. It has always been a contest shaped by power, interests and political positioning.

This time, however, the process appears even more politicized and deadlocked than before. The selection process is being shaped by the major geopolitical tensions and confrontations that play out daily in the Security Council, as well as by significant US budget cuts and demands for UN reform.

Members of the Security Council now regularly issue statements stressing the importance of competence and qualifications over gender, as though the two were somehow in conflict, while also arguing that the best candidate may not necessarily come from Latin America. In doing so, they have signalled that additional candidates are welcome.

UAE’s recent nomination of Lana Nusseibeh, immediately followed by Turkey’s nomination of Feridun Sinirlioglu, has added to both the suspense and the speculations.

In the most recent straw poll on Friday last week, it was expected that Nusseibeh would get a high number of votes in favour of her candidacy. To the surprise of many diplomats and observers, she received seven "encourage" votes, six "discourage" votes, and two "no opinion" votes, leaving the Security Council deadlocked as before. With yet another last-minute candidate thrown into the process, the straw polls will continue. What seemed almost inevitable only a few months ago, that the UN would finally appoint its first female (and Latin-American) Secretary-General, now appears far less certain.

• Torunn L. Tryggestad is Senior Researcher at PRIO, and Director of the PRIO Centre on Gender, Peace and Security
• This text was published in Norwegian by Panorama Nyheter and has been slightly revised/updated.